Polls

… The last ten years have seen the record of public pollsters take something of a beating

“The rise of the mobile phone has produced a situation where there are now many more phone numbers than voters in Canada. In some segments—especially young voters—land lines are as archaic as the rotary dial to an earlier generation.

“This means pollsters have a harder time finding younger voters, who either don’t have a landline at all, or are loathe to answer calls from pollsters on their mobiles, when they are being charged by the minute.

“Second, the financial framework of the polling industry has changed. Media and government, once major sponsors of public opinion polls, have dramatically reduced their spending; media because they are broke and governments because freedom of information laws take polls that could contradict policy and put them in the public domain.

“Finally, Canadians themselves have changed in terms of their willingness to participate in polls. Telephone polling refusal rates now top ninety per cent.”

Angus Reid | PollsterAngus-Reid-Pollster
Maclean’s (07/08/2013)

Photo credit: John Tory courtesy Denis Drever (Wikimedia/CC BY 3.0), Olivia Chow courtesy Andrew Rusk (Flickr/CC) and Doug Ford courtesy Himy Syed (Flickr/CC BY 2.0).

Photo credit: John Tory courtesy Denis Drever (Wikimedia/CC BY 3.0), Olivia Chow courtesy Andrew Rusk (Flickr/CC) and Doug Ford courtesy Himy Syed (Flickr/CC BY 2.0).


… With voting booths opening Oct. 27, what official results will be is still a mystery

“…Nanos Research and Mainstreet Technologies have released their latest poll results.

“Despite both polls being conducted during the same time period, they show significant differences in levels of support … there is a nine per cent difference between the two polls.

“17 per cent of people who consider themselves to be “likely voters” are undecided, and are believed to have an impact on voting day…

“…With voting booths opening Oct. 27, what official results will be is still a mystery.”

Abdikarim Hashi | JournalistAbdikarim Hashi
Humber News (09/23/2014)

… Unpredictable Toronto mayoral race is John Tory’s to lose according to polls, but nothing is certain

“The unpredictable mayoralty of Rob Ford has turned into an impossible-to-predict race for his replacement,

“…the only thing that’s certain is that time is running out. For John Tory, whose lead appears to cement with every passing poll, it’s a question of staying on message of transit and dependable leadership, while avoiding major gaffes.

“For Olivia Chow, it’s about convincing strategic voters who have shifted to Mr. Tory that they need not be so strategic

“…the polls seem pretty clear: Even within traditional Ford Nation territory, the race is John Tory’s to lose.

“…Political science professor Dennis Pilon warns against allowing polls to dominate the campaign narrative. Doing so, he says, can create the illusion that the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

“…That said, he doesn’t think Doug Ford can win. Rob Ford was propelled into the mayor’s office in 2010 thanks to a coalition of voters apoplectic over a garbage strike and a seemingly out-of-touch and wasteful city hall.

“…Mr. Konynenbelt says Ms. Chow is going to have to do something dramatic to stand out. Doug Ford, on the other hand, has the ability to influence where votes will go.

“…In the end, none of the candidates are Rob Ford. And in politics, a month is a very long time.”

natalie alcoba national post

Natalie Alcoba | City Hall reporter
National Post (09/26/2014)